This week’s analysis breaks down the fixtures to locate the ones with the most point potential and to highlight some of our favorite players from the Drafthound dream teams. If you don’t own any of the mentioned players - fear not - as we have insights on all players and teams including performance predictions and odds indexes to ensure you get those green arrows!
The winter program is well and truly here. 48 hours after the last round ended we already have to decide on transfers and captaincy picks again but with the caveat that predicting lineups is near impossible during this time of the season. It’s as if every team is managed by Pep…
Both Wolves and Chelsea will look to bounce back after losses in the weekend. There aren’t any obvious captaincy candidates in this fixture but if you’re looking to get points your best off targeting defenders like Zouma, Chilwell, or James who always rank high on Drafthound and among the bookmakers.
Before losing to Everton on Saturday, Chelsea had won four out of their last five games only drawing one against Tottenham. Wolves on the other hand have lost back-to-back games and have only managed a single victory (against Arsenal..) in their last five.
Chelsea has won four out of their last six games against Wolves, drawing one and losing another but their record at Molineux is even better with four wins in five.
The bookmakers’ expects Chelsea to win in what will probably be a low scoring game. They also have the blues as third favorites to keep a clean sheet (44%) only bested by United (50%) and City (63%).
This is one of the plum fixtures to target this week but obviously, uncertainty around Pep’s lineups needs to be considered too if you’re looking to captain e.g. De Bruyne who is amongst this week’s top picks.
The Belgian has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last four games. No midfielder has attempted more shots (17) than him over the same period and he’s also created the joint-fourth most chances (11). In addition to this, his record against West Brom is solid after having scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in both of his meetings against the Baggies at home which has earned him a 53% chance of scoring again according to the bookmakers.
Man City has scored 7 goals in their last four games which only Liverpool can best (8). In the same period, West Brom has conceded 8 goals which is the most in the league.
In City’s last six games (in all competitions) they have won four, drawn two, and kept a clean sheet in all of them. Oppositely, West Brom has lost five out of their last six games and is currently second at the bottom of the league.
Manchester City has an impressive track record against West Brom. They have won six out of their last six games both home and away - and six out of their last six games at the Etihad.
The bookmakers’ have priced City’s chances of winning to 91%, their chances of scoring +2-5 goals to 67%, and their clean sheet chances to 63% which makes them favorites in all three categories.
No obvious captaincy candidates in this fixture either. Arsenal has lost four home league games in a row for the first time since 1959. They recently lost to Burnley at home for the first time since 1974. They’ve made their worst ever start to a Premier League season. They’ve been defeated by 35% of the Premier League - BEFORE - Christmas and they are currently 15th in the league with 13 points from 12 matches. Ouch.
What does this mean? Well, it means that owners of Ings, Che Adams, Ward-Prowse, Walker-Peters, and McCarthy, etc. shouldn’t necessarily fear this matchup. Remember that the Saints have also scored 2+ goals against all the ‘traditional’ top six teams they have faced this season (Tottenham, Chelsea, and Man United) so there are definitely points up for the taking as their H2H also suggests:
Tough to predict anything from this matchup. The standout player is Bamford whose underlying stats are very impressive even though he failed to finish any of his chances against West Ham last Friday. No FPL forward has attempted more shots (17) than him in the last four GW’s and in the same period he’s also joint-fourth for shots on target (6).
Like Bamford, Leeds also has a hard time converting their chances to goals. They have only scored three times in the last four GW’s but in the same period, they also attempted the most shots (69) and had the joint-fifth most shots on target (20) which could be a good omen for things to come... Let’s hope so as they have only won one of their last six games.
Oppositely, Newcastle has won back-to-back games against West Brom and Crystal Palace. The Magpies have won three out of their last six games and currently rank join-eleventh in the league with Wolves and Crystal Palace despite having played a game less. Very Solid.
Leeds and Newcastle’s internal record doesn’t reveal much as they haven’t met that regularly over the last 10 years. Their most recent matches have seen two Newcastle victories, a draw, and one victory for Leeds.
Luckily we can always check the bookmaker projection to get a better overview of the games to come.
Leeds have been priced as major favorites to win with a 57% chance of doing so against Newcastle's 21%. Leeds is also one of the bookmakers’ favorites to provide the goals of this GW with a 29% chance of scoring more than 2.5 which only City (67%), United (36%) and Liverpool (31%) can best. Finally, they are joint-third favorites to keep a clean sheet with a 40% chance of doing so.
Will the game be as one-sided as suggested? If so then backing Bamford would be the ideal choice as his anytime goalscorer odds are currently priced at 45% making him the third-best forward this week (only behind Vardy (53%) and whoever is leading the City attack).
This will be an interesting game between two very equal sides. Everton beat Chelsea on Saturday after a very disciplined performance at the back which is an element they have been lacking recently. Leicester has won back-to-back games against Sheffield and Brighton scoring 5 goals in the process. The standout option is still Vardy who remains Leicester’s biggest talisman.
Vardy has 2 goals and 3 assists in his last three games - and he loves to play against Everton with 6 goals and 4 assists in his last 11 games against the Toffees.
Leicester and Everton don’t like drawing against one another with six out of their last six games finding a winner (split equally). They do, however, seem to provide the entertainment with an average of 3+ goals per game in their last six matches - a high ceiling for attacking point?
The bookmakers' have priced Leicester as favorites to win (44%) with a 25% chance of scoring +2-5 goals and a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Vardy himself is their favorite to score with a 53% chance of doing so which ranks him as this week’s second-best forward according to the bookmakers.
Not the most exciting fixture from a fantasy point-of-view (or for any neutrals…) but for those managers who still own Mat Ryan and Lamptey we’ll take a look at the CS chances.
Brighton has only managed a single clean sheet in their last five games and Fulham has only failed to score in two out of their last eight games.
Brighton has a mixed record against Fulham. They have won two of their last six games against them (in all competitions) and didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet in any of those. However, Brighton's specific record at Craven Cottage is a little better with three victories in their last four visits - keeping one clean sheet.
What does this mean? It means that the chance of Mat Ryan and Lamptey returning defensive points are not necessarily that great which the bookmakers agree with after pricing their chances of keeping a clean sheet to 36% (8th best in the league).
Game of the week between the top two! They have the exact same league record (7-4-1) and even though Tottenham has scored fewer goals (24 vs. 27) they have also conceded less (10 vs. 18) meaning they currently sit top of the table on goal difference.
Liverpool is expected to sit on the majority of the possession whereas Tottenham is expected to defend well and hit Klopp’s men on the counter as they did against both Man United and Man City.
The most obvious point candidates in this fixture are Salah and Kane who are also favorites for the Golden Boot. Salah has the advantage of playing at home and he has also scored ‘more’ goals than Kane this season (10 vs. 9) however, the latter has returned more points (107 vs. 95) and provided more assists (9 vs.3). Tough margins.
What about their record in this specific matchup? Well, 3 of Salah’s 4 goals against Spurs have come at Anfield and similarly, Kane has picked up 4 goals and 1 assist in his previous visits to Anfield... The one place where the two opponents differ the most is in their teams H2H:
As you can see Liverpool’s record against Tottenham is extremely one-sided in recent years with them winning five out of their last six games and only drawing once.
The bookmakers expect history to repeat itself once again and as a result, has priced Liverpool's chances of winning to 55% (vs. Spurs 22%). Salah’s chance of scoring has been priced to 48% whereas Kane sits at 36%.
This could be an entertaining game against two sides who at times have played some very good football this season - there are no obvious captaincy candidates, however.
West Ham has won four out of their last five games and currently sits joint-six in the table two points behind Chelsea. Crystal Palace has won two, lost two, and drawn once over the same period and find themselves joint 11th in the league - but they recently beat Crystal Palace 5-1 and then held Tottenham to a 1-1 draw at home so West Ham has their work cut out for them.
Crystal Palace has won twice in their last six meetings, West Ham has won one but the majority of their games have ended in a draw.
The bookmakers predict West Ham to continue their recent form by pricing their chances of winning to 47% but it’s also expected to be a low-scoring affair. Haller (34%), Zaha (29%), and Bowen (28%) have been given the biggest chances of scoring.
Both teams will be buzzing after their wins over the weekend but if we have to choose who to back from these two sites we’re backing Grealish. The Villa captain has attempted 8 shots over the last four GW’s and in the same period, he ranks among the top six midfielders for chances created (10).
Villa has only played 10 games this season but despite this Grealish is ranked among the top 9 players based on FPL points (73) having scored 5 and provided 6 assists already.
Aston Villa has scored nine goals in their last five games but they face a Burnley side who’ve kept a clean sheet in three out of their last five games.
Their recent H2H indicates that Aston Villa might be slight favorites with three wins in their last six matches. The bookmakers seem to agree having priced Villa's chances of winning to 57% which is only bested by City (91%) and Man United (68%).
Grealish has been given a 32% chance of scoring which only Watkins (44%) and Woods (33%) can best.
Just like it was the case with their blue counterparts - this is also one of this week’s plum fixtures.
Sheffield United have conceded 7 goals in their last four games without keeping a single clean sheet. In the same period, Man United have scored 7 goals which is only bested by Southampton (8) and Liverpool (9).
Fernandes remains Man United’s biggest talisman. If the Portuguese plays well, so do the rest of the team. In all the away games that he’s started this season, he’s picked up double figures. In his last five games, he’s picked up 4 goals and 3 assists and in the same period, he’s second for attempted shots (20) and first for shots on target (9) and chances created (18).
Man United has a strong history against Sheffield after winning five out of their last six games, only drawing once. The bookmakers have Ole’s men as the second-biggest favorites to win this week 68% and the second favorites to provide the most goals 36% and keep a clean sheet 50%.
Fernandes's chances of scoring a goal is priced at 45% which makes him one of the top attacking assets this week.
Many players have the potential to be good captain picks but here are this week’s go-to:
De Bruyne might have a slight edge over Fernandes as he is the main man in the heart of City’s attack. He plays at home against one of the league's weakest teams, his stats are impressive and he’s on penalty duty. The only worrying aspect is the risk of rotation but he’s one of the most consistent starters in the Premier League for City and he’ll have plenty of time to rest before their game on Saturday. [See in-depth analysis above if you haven’t already]
It’s almost a similar story with Fernandes. He also spearheads his team's attack, he will almost certainly start and he has hauled in all his away games this season.
The bookmaker projections are ultimately what decided is for us. De Bruyne is the favorite between the two to score (50% vs. 45%) and Man City are this week's favorites to win (91% vs. 68%), to score more than 2.5 goals (67% vs. 36%), and to keep a clean sheet (63% vs. 50%)
That’s it for our GW13 analysis! Good luck to everyone - and as always, feedback is much appreciated on email@example.com or over on our SoMe channels.
Gameweek 11 in the FPL was more run-of-the-mill with plenty of the big-name stars back among the highest scorers. The goals were flying in all over the country as the net was rustled 30 times in the 9 games that were played, an average of 3.33 goals per game. Let’s have a look at who were the best FPL players in Gameweek 11 now.
Wondering how to use Drafthound to boost your FPL performance? Look no further than our definitive guide to using our ranking and team analysis tools. We don’t expect you to read from A to Z (but we’d like you to). Instead, this guide is designed as a reference tool - so feel free to read the sections in whatever order you choose based on your specific need.
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