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Gameweek 8 - Regression to the mean

DH
By Drafthound Team 6th November 2020
4 min read

As much as GW7 wasn’t exactly what we’d dreamt of, we are now seeing statistically good-looking assets starting to perform (excluding TAA, of course…).





New gameweek, new site


To celebrate that the world hasn’t gone completely statistically mad (it even turned out that predictions were right on Biden - maybe…), we have done a major update on our site to include even more curated stats for your decision-making. Can’t wait to see you dig into those anytime goalscorer probabilities combined with our star-rating when choosing your next captain.


No more excuses for red arrows - let’s go green!


Fixtures?


GW8 is one tough cookie with many FPL darlings facing each other (City vs. Liverpool - Everton vs. United - Leicester vs. Wolves). So what to make of this? With an international break coming up and a somewhat similar tricky GW9, this is not the time for a wholesale (and NOT the time for a WC). On the contrary, GW10 looks like the much needed light at the end of the tunnel with particularly City, Liverpool and United getting favorable fixtures (Spurs RIP...). That’s why you probably want to play it safe for now (potentially even saving your FT to GW9, when half of your team returns with covid and hamstrings . God forbid!) - and possibly plan for that GW10 dream team.


West Ham?


The “go-for-anyone-facing-fulham” strategy seems to be this week’s bandwagon. But we’ll go for the unpopular opinion stating West Ham will not run riots against Fulham. Fulham got their first PL victory in GW7 and have generally looked less miserable in recent weeks. WHU is without Antonio and as much as they hold a bunch of cheap attractive FPL assets (Soucek, Creswell, Masuaku, Bowen) this may not impact real world results. For nothing else, you don’t want more than two WHU assets on your team - So, if you like their fixtures (you probably do) - and given that you like Antonio when he returns (you probably do) - this GW should not include more than 1 WHU asset.


Captain's Pick


Let's try something different and not mention every big hitter as captain. We’ll go with one simple recommendation and his name is Harry (the one who’s not Maguire...).


Watchlist


  • TAA: with 19 FPL points in 7 GWs, TAA is now inarguably the least bang for your bug so far this season (not even to be found on the first page of any defender ranked by FPL points). This said, his underlying stats are far from poor and as much as you don’t want to buy him, you don’t want to sell him either - unless (of course) you really need the budget elsewhere.
  • Werner: Lampard may now have found his favorite recipe and this means Timo on penalties (took two in UCL with Jorginho on the pitch). It also could mean Tammy in center and Timo on the left, which is of course slightly less attractive. Still it smells like German goals.
  • Ward-Prowse: With 2x fresh double digit hauls and now also on penalties (in the absence of Ings), Ward-Prowse could be your new best affordable friend. Still a punt though, and main issue is probably how the absence of Ings will affect SOU. Che is somehow the same story (without the penalties, of course).
  • Bowen: with a 33% anytime goalscorer probability and possibly playing as “nine” (if Haller has now proven himself too poor), Bowen can’t be ignored. Just don’t go nuts on WHU assets (you probably get the point by now...).
  • Reece James: With an average 40% CS probability during the next 4 GWs, anything Chelsea defence looks great. Main issue here is possible rotation with Azpi, why you could consider less risky options as Zouma or Chilwell (if you have the budget).
  • Harrison: With 17 key passes in the last 5 games, he looks like your most likely budget option for an assist (that is, if Bamford stops fumbling every big chance, of course).
  • Jota: We won’t let you down so of course Jota is also on our watchlist. But he is not on our team yet as long as we can’t expect more than 20 mins and with upcoming fixtures against City and Leicester (can’t wait for GW10!).

That’s it for our GW8 preview! We can’t wait for you to play around with our new site - and as always, feedback is much appreciated on info@drafthound.com or over on our SoMe channels.


Yours truly,

Drafthound Team

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