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By Drafthound Team 3rd November 2020
5 min read

Why Drafthound?


We are a Fantasy Premier League tipster providing you with the edge to pick better players for your team. We’re a team of fantasy hall-of-famers, smart bettors, and data scientists who use our combined knowledge from all areas of football analytics to improve your fantasy game - and we trust our prediction so much that we’re willing to bet on them.


To ensure that we only provide our users with the best possible predictions, we use them every week to maximize FPL points and beat the bookmakers.





Understanding Our Star Rating


Information such as goals, assists, tackles, and possession found on more conventional sports sites, and even the Fantasy Premier League platform itself, unfortunately, doesn’t provide a clear picture of the actual player and team performances.


Leading firms in sports analytics, scouting, and bookmaking know this already which is why they have turned to more advanced performance and prediction models in order to gain an edge on everyone else - and Drafthound is no different.


The Drafthound “star rating” system is our way of providing you with the exact same edge. We’ve built and trained our prediction algorithm with over 50,000,000 lines of football data and continue to do so every week. We analyze and rank all football events in order of how relevant they are in predicting upcoming player and team performances. We also benchmark and adjust the ratings relative to bookmakers’ odds and fantasy metrics such as predicted lineups - until we arrive at the final rating.


The star rating is divided into “short term” that ranks the players for the upcoming gameweek and “long term” that ranks the players for the next five gameweeks.


In short, our star-rating is your gateway to benchmark players across all positions and all underlying stats - and it’s condensed into one easy-accessible and easy-comparable figure.





Understanding Our Bookmaker Odds


When it comes to stakeholders, there is no one more invested in ‘getting things right’ than the bookmakers. That’s why it’s always a good idea to follow the odds - also when it comes to FPL. You can do that live from Drafthound, where you get the odds for a team to win a game, keep a clean sheet, and the odds for how many goals a team is likely to score - all of which increases the potential point return for the players on that team. And finally, we provide the odds of any player scoring in a specific game.


Odds are effectively the world’s best forecasting algorithms in terms of predicting future events in sports. We let the bookmakers do the hard work for you, then provide you with all the odds you need to make your own decisions and predictions. We combine this with all underlying match and player stats for a full-circle overview.


Any inferences to the odds (winning margin added by bookmakers) are leveled out by fetching it across all markets and providers. Comparing the odds across the entire betting market spectrum allows us to find the “true odds” (i.e. the true statistical probability for an outcome) and create a bookmaker consensus ranking for all players and teams. And if you find a loophole player or team where the odds don’t correspond to your knowledge of the player or fixture, you can even earn yourself money in the process - even if you agree with the bookmakers and your own analysis then you could also back yourself to make it even more fun and make your analysis worthwhile





Overview - Getting Started


You can start by researching Fixtures, Teams, and Players using our designated fantasy tools or you can customize your Drafthound experience by synchronizing directly with your FPL team by filling out your FPL credentials and gain access to a full team analysis under "My Team" in the bottom of your screen (desktop) or in the menu bar (mobile).


Drafting Your Next Team


You can now start tinkering with your team and get insights on how to best spend your transfers, plan your rotations, and finally pick a captain by diving into:



Which Players Deserve Your Special Attention?


Go to the “Home” tab to see our “Dream Teams” divided into three categories - “top picks” showcasing the best predicted picks regardless of price, “differential picks” to find the best picks not yet chosen by other FPL managers, and “value picks” to give you the most bang for your buck. You usually can’t and won’t simply mirror these teams but our Dream teams give you the perfect overview for your gameweek watchlist before digging into our other tools.


And if you are just in a hurry (it happens…), this is probably where you want to spend your time.


Customized Fixture Analysis


If you want to succeed at FPL, you obviously want to field the perfect team and pick the right captain. But FPL is just as much about planning for future gameweeks to avoid expensive transfers (also called “hits”). Our fixture analysis provides you with an overview of the five next upcoming FPL gameweeks along with a difficulty ranking based on the most relevant bookmaker team insights (win-odds, +2.5 odds, and clean sheet odds) to help you rotate and plan your team strategy accordingly.


Pro tip: How we plan for fixtures


  • Look at your team’s upcoming fixtures and locate any advantages and weaknesses using the bookmaker’s odds available in the fixture tool (and on all team pages).

  • Goalkeepers and Defenders are highly reliant on their fixtures so check out the bookmakers’ odds for clean sheets when picking and planning your team.

  • Midfielders and Forwards are less reliant on fixtures but ensure that the odds are still in their favor by checking out the team goals probability (+2.5) to find those most likely to have high scoring games.
  • Finally, check out the “odds” tab for form curves in terms of both the most recent goals and clean sheet record.

Player Status and Rotation Risk


There’s nothing more frustrating than locating that one-in-a-million differential pick only to discover that he’s injured or suspended - or planning to captain Sterling only to fall victim to the Pep roulette. Thankfully, we provide you with all the latest player statuses and predicted lineups on our "Teams" tab as well as the status set out in the prediction column in “player ranking” and the descriptive texts on the individual player pages.


Picking Your Winning XI


By now, you probably have an overview of the fixtures and what players to avoid - now it’s time to plan your transfers and rotate your bench.


Go to the “Players” menu with the “player ranking” tool and start digging into the individual player picks using our Drafthound “star ratings” and bookmaker’s odds - and navigate your way to the perfect fit for your team with intuitive filters.


Pro tip: How we use the “Player ranking”


  • Use both our “short term” and the “long term” star rating filters (which shows our star rating for the upcoming gameweek and for the next five gameweeks, respectively). This way, your new pick is likely to have an instant impact and to deliver down the road (to avoid instant transfer out).

  • Depending on your budget and your overall/mini-league ranking, use the “Budget” or “Differential” filters under “badges”. This either gives you the most bang for our buck or the most likely low-ownership pick to make the difference and catapult you to the top. And check out the “OOP” badge for those players playing “out-of-position” and more likely to make an attacking return than suggested by their FPL position.

  • Finally, always check how the bookmakers value your pick with the “Scoring %” and “Clean sheet %” as relevant - and if you find the odds favorable, you can do like us and bet on it!

Choosing a Captain


Your captain is key to green arrows and using our star rating (short term) is the obvious way to find your candidates. Get additional input with “anytime goalscorer” odds in the "odds tab" where you can also check-out your candidates’ most recent goal scoring form if you are looking for an attacking captain - or use the “clean sheet” odds if considering a Goalkeeper or a Defender. Finally, our “compare” tool allows you to make an informed “Salah or Mané?” decision (see just below).


Can’t Make Up Your Mind? Use Compare Players!


You’re not alone. Go to our “compare” tool in the “Players” menu” and choose your final transfer target, pick your captain, or find out if it even makes sense to make the transfer at all.


Pro tip: How we use the "Compare" tool


  • Choose 2-3 players for your comparison and consider the “suggested compares” in the drop-down menu to ensure you have not overlooked a more obvious pick.

  • The best player stats for each statistical item is highlighted in green and for a quick overview go for as much green as possible.

  • When looking at Forwards and Midfielders, your focus should be anytime goalscorer odds, goals, shots (total, on goal, on woodwork), assists, key passes, and similar attacking return.

  • When looking at Goalkeepers, your focus should be clean sheet odds, clean sheets, and saves - the same goes for Defenders but assists, key passes, crosses, and similar assist-related stats are also important in this regard.




Finally, Don't Forget Our Gameweek Preview Articles!


We live for stats but some things are better put into words. Read our guides and GW articles made throughout the week where we summarize the dos and don’ts of FPL based on the actions of the top 1% managers, bookmakers, and just a little touch of our own opinion.

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